In the late 1990s, North Koreans suffered through an extended famine that the regime blithely calls the “Arduous March” or the “March of Tribulations”. But antiseptic terms gloss over the misery and horror of those times. Conservative estimates say somewhere around a million people died, about 5 percent (1 in 20) of the population. Other sources claim the loss was as high as 3 million (1 in 8).
Whole districts were devastated, and survivors tell harrowing stories of widespread disease, digging for grubs to eat and entire families wiped out. Life in the rural north became especially brutish, with mothers selling off themselves or their children. There are multiple accounts of cannibalism and worse. The communist government blamed it on the weather. But the real culprits were a corrupt, collectivist system and the murderously cynical Kim Jong Il and his inner circle in Pyongyang, ensuring their elites dined well while the masses starved.
Vast international aid programs (including U.S. contributions of millions of tons of food worth hundreds of millions of dollars), largely stopped the dying. But another tragically unnecessary calamity is on the horizon. International experts now warn that famine could return to North Korea in 2008 and 2009.
- Bad 2007 harvest. The country needs at least 4.6 million tons of food each year (the UN says 5.2 million tons) to stave off disaster for the population, but last year’s harvest, again plagued by floods, was just 3.8 million tons. Unless filled, that gap will be deadly.
- Rising food prices. The spike in global food prices is hitting at precisely the worst time. With rice and other staple grains two or three times more costly, it will be more difficult for North Korea and key donor countries to fill the gap.
- South Korea reduces aid. The new right-of-center government in Seoul is leery of throwing assistance at Pyongyang without accountability. South Korea has been a major contributor, but President Lee Myong-bak has let it be known that he opposes further unconditional aid. Food shipments from Seoul will likely decline.
- China less accomoding. As Pyongyang’s major patron, China is the other key to keeping North Koreans fed. But China has its own price pressures and crop shortages, and some analysts say Beijing seeks more leverage over Kim Jong Il’s nuclear ambitions. Chinese food shipments to North Korea could decline as well.
This helps explain why a U.S. delegation was in North Korea just a few days ago to discuss food aid. China is also closely watching the situation. If action isn’t taken soon, a humanitarian disaster will be brewing on its border just as the Beijing Olympics begin this August.
Ironically, though, the more North Korea is bailed out, the longer the suffering of its people will continue. Minimizing starvation in the short term will mean more hunger and brutality over the long term. Only the tolerance of the international community and the dithering of major world powers allow the abomination of North Korea to continue.
T.T.
References:
One Free Korea (Website advocating liberation of N.Korea. Excellent resource.)
Four million dead in North Korea, (MySpace page by a human rights advocate. Warning: graphic images)
North Korea's Grim New Famine, Asia Sentinel, 6may08
Famine Special, North Korea Today, may08
North Korea food crisis looms as aid flow dries up, Reuters, 26mar08
Global Changes Skew Calculus of Food Aid for N.Korea, Wash.Post, 15mar08
The Deadly Secrets of North Korea, Doctors Without Borders, aug01
© 2008, WestRim Digital Arts, LLC
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